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Health Transition Review Vol. 6, Supplement. The Shaping of fertility and mortality declines: the contemporary demographic transition (1996) , pp. 345-369 (25 pages) Published By: National Center for Epidemiology and Population Health (NCEPH), The Australian National University https://www.jstor.org/stable/40652268 Journal Information The Health Transition Review is concerned with the cultural, social and behavioural determinants of health. Societies with similar levels of health provision and comparable incomes exhibit vastly different levels of health and mortality. This reflects differences in life styles, child rearing practices, and beliefs about the extent to which individuals can control their destinies and those close to them. HTR includes articles identifying and measuring the impact of cultural, social and behavioural forces on health and mortality, and broader papers on theory, methodology, review articles and historical studies concerning the health transition. A major interest of the journal is the social determinants of HIV/AIDS in developing countries. HTR also includes a number of supplement issues on topics of particular interest to the health transition. In addition, the publisher of HTR, the Health Transition Centre, produced a Health Transition Series on key health transition themes. Publisher Information The Health Transition Centre was established in 1988 by The Australian National University as part of the ANU’s National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health to foster work on the cultural, social and behavioral aspects of health. The Health Transition Review was published from the Australian National University, 1991–1997 (Vols. 1–7) with John C. Caldwell, editor and various co-editors. Health transition refers to the broad study of mortality transition involving interaction of cultural, social and behavioral factors with economic and medical factors to produce declines in morbidity and mortality. journal article Completing the Demographic TransitionPopulation and Development Review Vol. 25, No. 3 (Sep., 1999) , pp. 515-529 (15 pages) Published By: Population Council https://www.jstor.org/stable/172345 Abstract Despite ongoing declines in fertility in many countries, the population of the world is experiencing a period of rapid expansion, and its size is expected to reach 10 billion by the end of the demographic transition. Three causes of this growth are identified and quantified: 1) fertility above the replacement level of two surviving children per woman, 2) continuing declines in mortality, and 3) population momentum resulting from a young age structure. A set of simple analytic expressions is proposed for estimating these factors from standard demographic indicators. Population momentum is shown to be the main cause of future growth in most countries and regions. Journal Information Founded in 1975, Population and Development Review seeks to advance knowledge of the interrelationships between population and socioeconomic development and provides a forum for discussion of related issues of public policy. Combining readability with scholarship, the journal draws on high-level social science expertise-in economics, anthropology, sociology, and political science-to offer challenging ideas, provocative analysis, and critical insights. Each issue includes a lively collection of book reviews and an archives section that brings to light historical writings with a resonance for contemporary population debate. Supplements to the journal also are available. Publisher Information The Population Council conducts research to address critical health and development issues. Our work allows couples to plan their families and chart their futures. We help people avoid HIV infection and access life-saving HIV services. And we empower girls to protect themselves and have a say in their own lives. Rights & Usage This item is part of a JSTOR Collection. With the spread of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, dramatic changes began to occur in the populations of industrializing countries. But do the changes that occurred in Western Europe and the United States have relevance for modern countries just entering the industrial age? Students should be able to evaluate and apply models to explain changes in global demographic patterns, and use their assessments to predict future needs. Objectives
Content Standards Student Activities
Lesson Resources Transitions in World Population, p. 6 and pp. 7-11 (PDF: 320KB) Population: A Lively
Introduction, 4th edition (PDF: 260KB) Central Concepts: Demographic transition model; birth rate; death rate; natural increase Activity 1: Explaining Population ChangeThroughout much of history human populations have been characterized by relative stability—high birth rates and high death rates fluctuating around a low growth equilibrium. Dramatic changes followed first the Agricultural Revolution some 8,000 years ago, and later the Industrial Revolution 250 years ago, when improvements in food supply and changes in health and hygiene triggered unprecedented population growth. In the 1930s and 1940s, demographers proposed a model to explain the demographic changes observed in Western Europe between the late 18th and early 20th centuries. This model—the Demographic Transition Model—suggests a shift from high fertility/high mortality to low fertility/low mortality, with an intermediate period of rapid growth during which declining fertility rates lag behind declining mortality rates. This classic model is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales. Materials Needed
Instructions What is “Demographic Transition”? Before beginning this activity, assign the readings as homework.
Alternative Strategy: InstructionsSupply the following data and have the students construct the graph for analysis.
Activity 2: Global Population Patterns and Demographic TransitionsMaterials Needed
Instructions Refer to the current World Population Data Sheet by the Population Reference Bureau to answer the following questions. How Do Demographic Characteristics Vary Among World Regions?
Is There Correlation Between Demographic Indicators and Economic Well-Being? Refer again to the current World Population Data Sheet to complete the chart below:
*GNI PPP refers to gross national income converted to “international” dollars using a purchasing power parity conversion factor. International dollars indicate the amount of goods and services one could buy in the United States with a given amount of money.
Extension Based on the data collected in the final chart above, speculate in which stage of the classic demographic transition model each of these countries would fall.
Activity 3: Can an Old Model Explain New Trends?Introduction The classic Demographic Transition Model is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales. Critics of the model argue that “demographic transition” is a European phenomenon and not necessarily relevant to the experience of other regions, especially those regions referred to as “less developed” or “developing.” The underlying premise of the classic Demographic Transition Model is that all countries will eventually pass through all four stages of the transition, just as the countries of Europe did. Because the countries of Europe, as well as the United States, have achieved economic success and enjoy generally high standards of living, completion of the demographic transition has come to be associated with socioeconomic progress. This raises several questions:
Part One: Does the Classic Demographic Transition Model Provide a Useful Framework for Evaluating Demographic Change in Contemporary Developing Countries?Materials Needed
Instructions Assign the reading above before conducting this activity.
[Note: Data for additional countries can be found in the U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base] Part Two: Is the Demographic Transition Model Useful as a Framework for Evaluating Demographic Change?Materials Needed
Instructions
This lesson plan is part of a teaching package, Making Population Real: New Lesson Plans and Classroom Activities. * AP and the Advanced Placement Program are registered trademarks of the College Entrance Examination Board, which was not involved in the production of these lesson plans. How did Africa Asia and Latin America move into Stage 2 of the demographic transition?Countries in Africa, Asia, & Latin America moved on to stage 2 during the 2nd half of the 20th century for a different reason than was the case for Europe and North America 200 years earlier. The late twentieth-century push of countries into stage 2 was caused by the medical revolution.
What caused Stage 2 of the demographic transition model to occur in Africa?Why did countries enter stage 2 of the demographic transition? The Industrial Revolution.
What happens in stage 2 of the demographic transition?Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a rapid decrease in a country's death rate while the birth rate remains high. As such, the total population of a country in Stage 2 will rise because births outnumber deaths, not because the birth rate is rising.
Is South Africa in Stage 2 of the demographic transition model?Stage three countries start to become more industrialized, which means they are more urbanized and the total fertility rate goes down. Countries that are currently in stage three are Mexico, India, Colombia, and South Africa.
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How did Africa Asia and Latin America moved into Stage 2 of the demographic transition?
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